Effect of COVID-19 Patients Flow Rate from ER to LPD on COVID-19 Patients Healing Rates at RSUP DR. Sardjito’s ER

Muchammad Choerul Arifin (1) , Naelufa Syifna Wifaqotul Muna (2) , Arizka Yuliana (3) , Lingga Sanjaya Putra Mahardhika (4) , Albert Hosea Santoso (5) , Dwi Ertiningsih (6)
(1) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia., Indonesia,
(2) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, Indonesia,
(3) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, Indonesia,
(4) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, Indonesia,
(5) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, Indonesia,
(6) Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia (0274) 552243, Indonesia

Abstract

COVID-19 or Coronavirus Disease-19 which first appeared in December 2019 has spread around the world, one of which is Indonesia. The spread of the COVID-19 has affected all areas of human life and the most affected area is health. It can be known from the number of COVID-19 patients in numerous national referral hospitals, one of which is RSUP Dr. Sardjito. This large number of COVID-19 patients often causes a high number of bed occupancy rates and has an impact on special rooms, the room for COVID-19 patients who come to the hospital for the first time or the Emergency Room (ER) and the room for COVID-19 patients from the ER who was declared seriously ill or inpatient. Furthermore, imbalance between the number of ER and Long-stay Patient Department (LPD) and the number of COVID-19 patients result in a decrease in the flow rate of COVID-19 patients from the ER to the long stay patient department. To find out the impact of that flow rate, this research was conducted using Richard's Curve and Kaplan-Meier Estimator. The results of this research show effect of flow rate which can be observed from the probability of COVID-19 patients who recovered or died in each special room. The probability of a COVID-19 patient in the ER recovered is greater than the probability of a patient died. Meanwhile, the probability of a COVID-19 patient in the long stay patient department recovered is smaller than the probability of a patient died.

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References

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Authors

Muchammad Choerul Arifin
Naelufa Syifna Wifaqotul Muna
Arizka Yuliana
Lingga Sanjaya Putra Mahardhika
Albert Hosea Santoso
Dwi Ertiningsih
dwi_ertiningsih@ugm.ac.id (Primary Contact)
Arifin, M. C., Muna, N. S. W., Yuliana, A., Mahardhika, L. S. P., Santoso, A. H., & Ertiningsih, D. (2022). Effect of COVID-19 Patients Flow Rate from ER to LPD on COVID-19 Patients Healing Rates at RSUP DR. Sardjito’s ER. Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society, 28(2), 173–184. https://doi.org/10.22342/jims.28.2.1041.173-184

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